Rui Carmo
Dario Amodei’s essay is a fascinating dive into the potential upsides of powerful AI, but it feels a bit like a tech utopia wrapped in a cautionary tale. While he rightly emphasizes the need to address risks, the optimism about AI’s ability to solve complex global issues—like health and governance—might be a touch overzealous. Sure, AI could revolutionize biology and mental health, but let’s not forget the human element (or lack thereof) in these grand plans.
The idea that we could compress a century of progress into a mere decade is enticing, but it raises eyebrows. After all, history has shown us that technological advancements often come with their own set of challenges—think of the unintended consequences of social media. So, while the vision of a “compressed 21st century” is compelling, it’s essential to remain grounded in the reality that technology alone won’t save us; it’s how we choose to wield it that will truly matter.
And we just don’t have a good enough track record of that, honestly. Furthermore, LLMs still feel like a party trick gone viral–as token shuffling and prediction machinery, they lack true understanding, the ability to truly learn in real-time (associative memory, for starters), and, more importantly, any kind of agency. Which is why I am convinced that a second AI Winter is increasingly likely as we continue throwing money (and brute force compute) at these problems without understanding them.